I don't read Thai, but both Google and ChatGPT translate รายได้โดยเฉลี่ยต่อเดือนต่อครัวเรือน รายจังหวัด พ.ศ. as "average monthly household income" rather than median. I find it rather difficult to believe that median incomes are Thailand because prices seem lower in Bangkok than even a tier 3 city in China.
Thai to English translation via Google Translate is utter trash for some reason, but here's the Disposable Income stats the Thai Govt provided [0] and matches the data I provided above.
Also, Thai B1/2 refusal rates are significantly lower than Chinese B1/2 rates (B1/2 is largely judged based on economic capacity) and Thailand doesn't even have an exit pass requirement.
Also, Thai citizens can travel to SK and JP visa free but Chinese can't, which further proves the point.
> prices seem lower in Bangkok than even a tier 3 city in China
Because of housing. After the Housing Market crash happened in 1997 due to overbuilding, Thailand has a severe deflationary period similar to what China is facing today.
Most Western FMCGs in ASEAN are also manufactured in Thailand and don't have a luxury tax (0% in Thailand versus 30-40% in China), which has helped keep prices low.
This and the large Chinese Thai community is why Thailand became a popular tourist destination for middle class Chinese before COVID
Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid. Now it's ~2-5% higher, but that's more likely due to geopolitics, not average Thai who can travel suddenly becoming richer than average PRC who can travel. Especially considering US/PRC flights still have restored to full capacity. SK/JP VISA free travel seems like a strange indicator to back up assertion, also more factor of geopolitics. I'm guessing average middle class PRC traveller is a larger spender than average thai traveller, especially to SK/JP. Unless the assertion that without VISA there'd be more low income travellers from PRC, but that's something airline supply/demand will filter out.
Eitherway, housing price makes some sense, but this data still feels off, considering PRC is at 65% urbanization vs Thai 50%, and neither urban nor rural thai measures up to urban or rural PRC from my travels.
> Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid
In 2022, 22% of Chinese B1/2 applicants overstayed in the US versus 8% of Thai applicants [0].
That is a massive discrepancy, and hard to attribute for any other reason except economic.
The primary factor to getting a B1/2 visa is proof that you will not overstay in the US or become a Ward of State
> SK/JP VISA free travel seems like a strange indicator to back up assertion
Because SK and JP grant tourist visas based on overstay risks and proof of income as well. That's why much poorer Vietnam doesn't have visa free travel to JP or SK despite having extremely permissive FTAs with both countries.
> without VISA there'd be more low income travellers from PRC, but that's something airline supply/demand will filter out
Or, you know, visa free status and overstay rates by country.
> Eitherway, housing price makes some sense, but this data still feels off, considering PRC is at 65% urbanization vs Thai 50%, and neither urban nor rural thai measures up to urban or rural PRC from my travels.
Well, firstly, Chinese urbanization rates seem to be miscounted upwards, as Tsinghua noted [1] for 2019 and earlier data. The Chinese numbers are closer to 50-55%.
Secondly, rural and urban incomes are starkly different in Thailand versus China, as both countries government released statistics have shown, and even Thailand's National and Local HDI statistics have proven.
There's no way around it, the average Thai (who lives a rural or semi-rural life) has a better quality of life than the average Chinese person (who also lives a rural or semi-rural life)
You're a well read guy, but I find some of your use of data in this thread to be a little confusing.
E: Tsinghua study is about reclassifying based on household registeration, rural registered working in urban does not have access to urban level of social support, so less people should be considered urban even though they contribute to urban agglomeration effects. Which is what we think about when we measure urbanization. But it's not about whether rural PRC has less QoL than rural thai. Which sure, household income and HDI measures as proxy. But then tack on all the redistribution mechanisms, i.e. social transfers in kind where state subsidizes take home income and see it in practice and I find it difficult to believe (from what I see travelling both places, granted anedotal) average Thai has better QoL on when PRC per is 80% larger and per capita accounts for redistributed resources that supplements disposable income.
> Maybe geopolitics changed between US/PRC since 2018?
With worse geopolitics, you'd have fewer Chinese illegally overstaying their Visitor Visa (which by definition is illegal immigration). This is why there was a drop in H1/F1 category applications from China.
There is no reason to overstay a visitor visa except undocumented work, especially since they are granted with 1-2 year blocks.
If you had legal work status, you'd be granted a H1B/H2B.
If you came for education, you'd be granted an F1.
If you have a degree and a great lawyer, you'd be granted an O1.
If you have millions of USD, you'd be granted an EB5
If you came for marriage, you would be granted a K1
You have more PRC illegally entering US from south due to US reducing issuing VISAs to PRC by large amount in last few years, IIRC CNN said over 80%, from 1m+ to low 100,000. Combined with reduced flights, the incentive for those who want to enter/overstay in US increase. Conversely 2022 data doesn't explain why data before US-PRC relations collapsed were overstaying less than Thais.
I see the gov stats youre posting, but this is where my personal experience find it divorced from ground reality. HDI sure, rural PRC education probably shittier, health care access questionable, but household stuff and general development in urban/rural as proxy for income, PRC seems much better than Thailand.
> PRC illegally entering US from south due to US reducing issuing VISAs to PRC by large amount in last few years
Which is a mark of desperation.
Why are similarly large numbers of Thai nationals not doing the same?
Nothing you say is disproving my larger point.
You aren't going to pay cartels to traffic you into the US if all you want to do is sight see in NYC.
> Conversely 2022 data doesn't explain why data before US-PRC relations collapsed were overstaying less than Thais.
I agree. Which is why the geopolitical argument you propose doesn't make sense.
> personal experience find it divorced from ground reality
I don't know your ground reality. But if you are on this forum, you probably live or lived in a T1 city working a high income white collar job in the booming Chinese tech industry.
Most Chinese aren't.
And this is where the difference comes in.
Beijing and Tianjin are great QoL wise when you earn a high income, yet neighboring Hebei has been fairly impoverished for a long time.
Not as bad as previously ofc. Yet much worse than Pathan Thani or Ayutthaya (the Thai equivalent of Hebei).
Hell, if you travel to Isaan, the Thai version of Guizhou or Gansu, the difference between the two is stark.
I have traveled thru Hebei, Beijing, etc in the late 2010s as I have traveled Isan, BKK, and Ayutthaya as well in Thailand.
> HDI sure, rural PRC education probably shittier, health care access questionable, but household stuff and general development in urban/rural as proxy for income, PRC seems much better than Thailand
So, ignoring the stats that calculate life for the average person, not the top 20-30%.
There's a lot more PRC people so you would get more desperate people. Desperate people want to goto US. Desperate Thais without VISA drama just go and overstay, and they've historically overstayed more than PRC when US didn't crack down on PRC VISA. That's the control. Post VISA drama, the amount of PRC who are trying to sneak into US vs net drop in PRC who travel to US is drop in bucket, 30k wants to go, but 1M+ simply choose to forgo. Under previous control circumstances, PRC who wants to goto US and illegally overstay just... fly to US or Can and overstay, same method as Thais, but at less % than Thai. Hence it's geopolitics of VISA changes driving increased VISA changes. Because the people paying the snake heads also seem to be T2 / middle income tier, i.e. they have to be resourced to make the trip in the first place, and they have the opportunity to go because PRC influence in LATAM (triad) have setup good asylum schemes because US state sucker for PRC repression story. They're as much desperate as they are opportunists because geopolitcs has made asylum claims another avenue for getting into US.
> live or lived in a T1 city
I lived in T1, but I travelled T2/T3 where family are, including even worse bumfuck nowhere rust belt in the north. I see the differences. QoL in these places were still better than what I experienced in rural Thai (away from tourist areas), i.e. Isaan being better than Guizhou and Gansu I find not credible. Well I mean obviously Isann is much better than Gansu as a tourist. Rural Isaan was much more pleasant but people in rural Gansu has more stuff. Which leads to:
> stats
Stats for development, not stats for broad QoL, which HDI can be proxy indicator but doesn't capture full Qol reality, i.e. I replied with edit above, there's all sorts of additional social transfer / subsidies from central gov to PRC backwaters that supplement income and make QoL for your undereducated peasant/nongming better than disposable income would suggest. They have less HDI QoL but better actual QoL, which is what matters because padding their resumes with education that they're too old to make productive use of is dumb use or resources than just subsidize their income with modern infra, consumption and services. A lot of that doesn't get captured in disposable income and HDI. But it adds up substantially when gov has 5000 more per capita to play various fiscal transfers with, especially if they use to specifically to uplift bottom quantile.
If you read Thai it's disposable as well [0]. There are so many data transformation problems on CEIC that I don't trust it. For example with Malaysia and Latvia
This is why I equally distrust Statisa for similar reasons.
Use primary sources instead of secondary sources as they say.
The median household income in Thailand is around $7,000 [0] versus around $4,000 [1] in China - both are government provided statistics.
> Regarding "democratization" I'd say again that the most effective killers of Chinese democracy movement are Pompeo and Trump
In a way, but more so the economic stagnation and massive inequality towards the end of the Hu Jintao era as the Bo Xilai scandal proved.
[0] - http://statbbi.nso.go.th/staticreport/page/sector/th/08.aspx
[1] - https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t202201...