I think this is a bear case on China - essentially you're saying that authoritarian government is unstable by nature, democracy is the end of history, etc.
I'm a bit less certain. Past is no indication of future, but China has been the most successful authoritarian country to date. Enough for me to start questioning whether democracy is truly the only way.
For example, I look at their recent crack down rather enviously - to pivot from consumer internet which they realized they have no competitive advantage over into the "German model" where industrialization is key, is a much better approach considering their industrial base and current political climate. In the US, things are moving much slower.
So IDK - I'm not sure if I buy the "it'll get worse" effect. Besides, you could be right, just off by 500 years. In the longrun - we're all dead
>I'm a bit less certain. Past is no indication of future, but China has been the most successful authoritarian country to date. Enough for me to start questioning whether democracy is truly the only way.
There's a 200 year old quote by Scottish historian Alexander Fraser Tytler that elaborates on this viewpoint:
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”
I'm a bit less certain. Past is no indication of future, but China has been the most successful authoritarian country to date. Enough for me to start questioning whether democracy is truly the only way.
For example, I look at their recent crack down rather enviously - to pivot from consumer internet which they realized they have no competitive advantage over into the "German model" where industrialization is key, is a much better approach considering their industrial base and current political climate. In the US, things are moving much slower.
So IDK - I'm not sure if I buy the "it'll get worse" effect. Besides, you could be right, just off by 500 years. In the longrun - we're all dead